The Lofty Lantern

Obama should have hit McCain on his advocacy of Nuclear energy; his talk about reprocessing was strange, shallow, and alarming.  Sure, Nuclear Reprocessing exists, but it doesn’t succeed in eliminating nuclear waste.

What the process does is to seperate the waste into different components.  Some such as plutonium are used for nuclear weapons, some can be used to generate more energy, and - contrary to McCain’s implications - a significant amount is nuclear waste that’s going to be around a very, very long time.

This was a great opportunity for Obama to attack McCain on his understanding of foreign policy, domestic security, and energy.  Nuclear reprocessing has been at the core of Iran’s attempts to obtain nuclear weapons, and it’s sad to see that McCain doesn’t really understand the issue.

On a positive note, at least McCain hasn’t started talking about some imaginary ability of the government to reprocess the investment bank’s toxic assets.

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When John McCain told the Weekly Standard that he might consider naming a pro-choice candidate as his Vice President, I wondered if maybe there was a method to his madness. Sure there are some benefits to the idea; being thought of as even considering a pro-choice VP could help him with moderates, particularly those women still appalled that Hillary Clinton lost the nomination. Even a trial balloon for former Pennsylvania Governor Tom Ridge, or for Senator Joe Lieberman could help McCain in swing state Pennsylvania or with a whole mess of voters. Actually doing it of course would be suicide, ceding millions of votes from the right, far more than he could expect to gain from the center. But mentioning it might be helpful.

Yet if this had been planned intelligently, it would not have been done this way at all. First of all, it wouldn’t have been McCain himself who said it, but rather a highly placed campaign source. That would have avoided the current difficulty, where McCain himself has been quoted saying, “You know, Tom Ridge is one of the great leaders and he happens to be pro-choice. And I don’t think that that would necessarily rule Tom Ridge out,” an opinion that will certainly exacerbate already existing concerns on the right. If he insisted on saying it himself, he would have said it differently. He should have said, I strongly disagree with Tom Ridge or with Joe Lieberman on abortion, but I deeply respect Lieberman’s expertise on foreign policy or Ridge’s on homeland security and I think they should be considered for the Vice Presidency. By leading with his opposition to their stance on abortion, he would still show his willingness to accept people who disagree with him, without appalling conservatives. Third, if you were going to do this well, you wouldn’t have done it to the Weekly Standard. The leading neoconservative magazine might not itself be wholeheartedly pro-life, but they certainly aren’t voting because of their position on abortion. Virtually none of the swing voters who might be impressed by McCain’s semi-independence on the issue read this magazine, keeping the benefit nil. It also got relatively little mainstream press, so far covered primarily by the political papers.

So it wasn’t planned well. And now for his trouble, McCain has managed to piss off more voters whom he needed, exactly what you hope not to do not even from the Vice-Presidential selection, but from its process.

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In his piece on the Republican Vice Presidential selection process, New York Times op-ed columnist William Kristol suggests that McCain might make an unlikely choice: “This implies a young and different V.P.: the 37-year-old governor of Louisiana, Bobby Jindal; 44-year-old Gov. Sarah Palin of Alaska; or Eric Cantor, the 45-year-old Virginia congressman. Party pros would have fainting spells about the unseasoned Jindal and Palin in particular — but party pros are often wrong, and if Jindal or Palin performed well as candidates, the upside would be considerable.”

In terms of Sarah Palin, the party pros may have a point. Palin brings a series of formidable advantages to the table, from her willingness to critique the endemic corruption in Alaska Republican politics that is now being openly revealed in the Ted Stevens case, to her stance on abortion that could solidify McCain’s support on the right (incidentally, will this take away any Evangelical votes she might have gained?). That being said, sending a person who served in only local positions before winning a single statewide election (in Alaska, no less. Their investigative reporters are probably not quite on the Daily News, let alone Boston Globe level), to run for Vice President is a risk.

But what is it about Bobby Jindal that would cause “party pros” to specifically faint that Eric Cantor would not? That he is “unseasoned”? Yes, Cantor, a 3 term Congressman from Virginia, has been a significant figure in the Republican caucus, rising to the Chief Deputy Whip. Jindal, however, has run two statewide races in Louisiana that were distinctive for the nastiness in which ensued, and won one. He also won two races for the US House of Representatives, where he was the President of his freshmen class, a position of little import, but probably constituting almost as much “seasoning” as being the Chief Deputy Whip. This is after Jindal ran a series of crucial state-wide offices in Louisiana and served as the Assistant Secretary of Health and Human Services. Granted, none of this makes him necessarily ready to handle the political duties of the Vice Presidential candidate, but he certainly is more seasoned than Cantor.

There is a simple explanation: these “party pros” aren’t that concerned about Cantor because they know that he won’t be named, whereas Jindal or Palin may very well be. I suspect this isn’t it. One finds this strange presumption that Jindal is this deeply risky selection for reasons that are irresponsible. Jindal is a risky selection, both because of his odd social views that could lose him as many votes in the center as he would gain on the right, and for the unfortunate reason that his ethnicity will lose him votes that McCain could use. But one thing he does have is experience - why say otherwise? (Of course Kristol himself doesn’t say this, but is quoting Republican party figures on this). Perhaps this is over-reading, but it feels like we’re now using inexperience as code for being an unusual candidate in terms of race. It’s unfortunate. It’s one thing for a candidate to lose votes because of his ethnicity - it seems much worse for us to shade it and not discuss it, directly.

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On George Stephanopoulos’ show, John McCain refused to categorically deny the possibility of raising payroll taxes to fund Social Security. Now, he’s getting slapped by the Wall Street Journal.

The WSJ makes its own points about the misguided politics of making such a statement. I largely agree. Perhaps the larger point, though, is that the Wall Street Journal - and in this case they are representative of many conservatives with whom they strongly disagree, including religious and cultural conservatives - simply don’t trust John McCain. They’re going to vote for him, sure. But they don’t trust him. The reason is pretty simple: John McCain has spent the last two decades voting regularly with the Republican Party but taking the occasional opportunity to play maverick, and to challenge the conservative orthodoxy. That this occurred on only 4 or 5 issues is irrelevant. Those were the most famous things that McCain did. Of course he did get benefits from taking those stances, but he is also now paying a price. This is it.

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Mitt Romney is considered one of the leading candidates to be McCain’s Vice Presidential pick, but recieved knocks from both economic and social conservatives today.

The Washington Times published an article today with a whole list of major figures of the religious right who would be decidedly displeased if Mitt Romney became McCain’s nominee, both because of his flexible stances on abortion and other social issues, as well as his membership in the Mormon Church. That there is concern with the former Massachusates Governor is less telling than that the Washington Times is publishing this article as the McCain campaign is making its final decision, and that figures like Tim LaHaye are willing to be quoted with their abiding concerns.

In a less aggressive but perhaps equally problemmatic development, the Wall Street Journal comments that even Romney’s percieved strength - economic policy - might not be as problem-free as Romney backers might like. They suggest that Romney’s health care plan was close enough to Obama’s that it might be difficult for him to criticize Obama on the campaign trail, and might hurt McCain amongst economic conservative voters.

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Tim Kaine, the Democratic Governor of Virginia, is in Washington DC today along with Barack Obama . This would renew speculation about whom Obama will choose to be Vice President, except the speculation never diminished enough to be able to be renewed.

Currently, Barack Obama possesses a small but distinct lead in the Presidential campaign, which gives him the luxury of not needing a big gain from his Vice Presidential pick. His Vice President needs to be a confirming figure for Middle America, both in terms of culture and foreign policy. Either executive experience or DC experience would be a plus. Strength amongst Catholics or midwestern whites, the decisive blocs in this campaign, is always helpful, as is popularity in a particular region.

The four leading candidates for the Vice Presidency: Virginia Governor Tim Kaine, Indiana Senator Evan Bayh, Rhode Island Senator Jack Reed, and former South Dakota Senator Tom Daschle, are similar in the sense that they won’t hurt Obama with any significant group, and will solidify his position amongst the many voters who don’t oppose Obama, but are wary of him. For the next three months, the question of how comfortable Americans are with Obama will be the decisive question in whether he becomes the next President, or if the old reliable Republican wins.

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This doesn’t look too good for her

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Robert Novak, arguably the best connected and most influential conservative political columnist, reported the other day that McCain would announce his Vice Presidential pick this week. The news recieved a moderate amount of attention. Today, however, Novak is saying that that piece of information may have been given to him by a McCain staffer simply to take away attention from Obama’s foreign trip, and that in fact McCain would not be announcing his VP this week at all. Novak’s comment on the tactic? “Pretty reprehensible”

And to think Chris Lehane wasn’t involved with this tactical masterpiece. (Or is he? Are there former Kerry staffers in the McCain campaign? Dukakis aides? George Romney’s speechwriter?) Conceptually, you have to respect the McCain maneuver; Obama is recieving and will continue to recieve intense press coverage as he meets world leaders and encounters adoring crowds and looks like a President, and of course the McCain campaign should try to dampen some of that enthusiasm. But it isn’t simply that this revelation failed to gain any significant attention, but that in the process, they managed to piss off Novak, who in contrast to other political analysts, lets his, shall we say personal views, enter his columns. And remember, Novak is used to hardball political tactics, so we won’t even discuss what the unnamed McCain staffer must have done that Robert Novak, the self-proclaimed “Prince of Darkness,” describes it as “pretty reprehensible.”

So let’s recap: in the middle of Obama’s dream media week (unless he makes any mistakes), to get the gain of virtually nothing, McCain pissed off Robert Novak. Not bad for a day’s work

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The Republican Senator from South Carolina has said that Mitt Romney is a leading candidate to be McCain’s Vice Presidential pick. What’s interesting is that it confirms the common perception that though Graham is close to McCain, he himself is not a serious candidate to be his Vice President.

Why not? At first blush, he makes a lot of sense for McCain. He’s of a similar sort, largely conservative though a maverick on a number of issues - and much the same issues - as McCain. He is in the Army (Reserves), and could help up the pressure on Obama to match the Republicans on national security issues. Though there are conservatives that are wary of Graham for his heresies on issues like immigration, he’s sufficiently solid to reassure them and his independent streak could help emphasize McCain’s appeal to moderate voters. But, apparently this isn’t enough to put him on the ticket

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John McCain is taking time from his battleground state tour to go to New Orleans and speak with Louisiana Governor and trendy risky Vice Presidential pick Bobby Jindal. In conjuction with rumors that McCain is planning to name his pick this week, it becomes easy to guess that Jindal is on the shortest of short lists. This makes sense, but remember, if McCain doesn’t choose Jindal, the Louisanian has enough support that it might have been worth it anyway for McCain to send a clear signal that he was seriously considered.

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