The Lofty Lantern

In his piece on the Republican Vice Presidential selection process, New York Times op-ed columnist William Kristol suggests that McCain might make an unlikely choice: “This implies a young and different V.P.: the 37-year-old governor of Louisiana, Bobby Jindal; 44-year-old Gov. Sarah Palin of Alaska; or Eric Cantor, the 45-year-old Virginia congressman. Party pros would have fainting spells about the unseasoned Jindal and Palin in particular — but party pros are often wrong, and if Jindal or Palin performed well as candidates, the upside would be considerable.”

In terms of Sarah Palin, the party pros may have a point. Palin brings a series of formidable advantages to the table, from her willingness to critique the endemic corruption in Alaska Republican politics that is now being openly revealed in the Ted Stevens case, to her stance on abortion that could solidify McCain’s support on the right (incidentally, will this take away any Evangelical votes she might have gained?). That being said, sending a person who served in only local positions before winning a single statewide election (in Alaska, no less. Their investigative reporters are probably not quite on the Daily News, let alone Boston Globe level), to run for Vice President is a risk.

But what is it about Bobby Jindal that would cause “party pros” to specifically faint that Eric Cantor would not? That he is “unseasoned”? Yes, Cantor, a 3 term Congressman from Virginia, has been a significant figure in the Republican caucus, rising to the Chief Deputy Whip. Jindal, however, has run two statewide races in Louisiana that were distinctive for the nastiness in which ensued, and won one. He also won two races for the US House of Representatives, where he was the President of his freshmen class, a position of little import, but probably constituting almost as much “seasoning” as being the Chief Deputy Whip. This is after Jindal ran a series of crucial state-wide offices in Louisiana and served as the Assistant Secretary of Health and Human Services. Granted, none of this makes him necessarily ready to handle the political duties of the Vice Presidential candidate, but he certainly is more seasoned than Cantor.

There is a simple explanation: these “party pros” aren’t that concerned about Cantor because they know that he won’t be named, whereas Jindal or Palin may very well be. I suspect this isn’t it. One finds this strange presumption that Jindal is this deeply risky selection for reasons that are irresponsible. Jindal is a risky selection, both because of his odd social views that could lose him as many votes in the center as he would gain on the right, and for the unfortunate reason that his ethnicity will lose him votes that McCain could use. But one thing he does have is experience - why say otherwise? (Of course Kristol himself doesn’t say this, but is quoting Republican party figures on this). Perhaps this is over-reading, but it feels like we’re now using inexperience as code for being an unusual candidate in terms of race. It’s unfortunate. It’s one thing for a candidate to lose votes because of his ethnicity - it seems much worse for us to shade it and not discuss it, directly.

Posted under Politics | No Comments »

John McCain is taking time from his battleground state tour to go to New Orleans and speak with Louisiana Governor and trendy risky Vice Presidential pick Bobby Jindal. In conjuction with rumors that McCain is planning to name his pick this week, it becomes easy to guess that Jindal is on the shortest of short lists. This makes sense, but remember, if McCain doesn’t choose Jindal, the Louisanian has enough support that it might have been worth it anyway for McCain to send a clear signal that he was seriously considered.

Posted under Politics | No Comments »

But can somebody explain to me why Chris Cilizza thinks that Alaska Republican Governor Sarah Palin would be a “Hail Mary” pick for John McCain? The basic distinction between the safe picks and the Hail Mary picks are that the safe picks are all white men while the Hail Mary ones aren’t.

I get why Bobby Jindal is a risk. He has some, shall we say staunch, conservative views that will turn off a lot of voters. And, as we horrifyingly saw in the 2003 campaign, when his ethnicity did become an issue (because of the well-named Kathleen Blanco), that could also cause problems for a Republican campaign.

Sarah Palin, on the other hand, doesn’t share those problems. Her position on abortion is just as extreme, but her story (A child with Down’s Syndrome, etc) will mitigate many of the concerns of independent white women (who, truth be told, will decide this election as they have the last handful).

While we’re asking for explanations, when will the story be told of Rob Portman’s PR staff? Is there any office this guy doesn’t get considered for? He had press releases issued in previous years as to whether he’d run for Governor of Ohio, Senator of Ohio, and even President of the United States. The guy is a former junior Congressman who served a few months as US Trade Representative and a few more as Director of the OMB. I get that Ohio matters, but he’s not even from a swing district like Columbus, or even from a region the Republicans have trouble in. He’s from Cincinatti, one of the safest districts in the entire country. It even elected Jean Schmidt. Twice. For a Republican, winning an election there ain’t exactly Truman beats Dewey is what I’m saying. And yes, the guy has economic experience and McCain is weak in that, but do you know what Portman was doing in Congress? He was on the Ways and Means Committee. That’s a terrific committee to be on if you want to stay in Congress, because every person with business before Congress has an excellent reasons to donate money to your campaign. For a national campaign? Not so much. I’m not saying that Rob Portman is a bad guy, or shouldn’t or won’t be playing a crucial role in the McCain campaign or a McCain Presidency. Hell, he’d be an interesting Secretary of the Treasury or Secretary of Commerce. But it isn’t exactly astonishing that the people pushing him are invariably “Washington insiders.” Portman is a Washington insider.

Some of you might note George Bush Sr., who is the only person to be about as odd a choice. I’d note that there is a huge difference, politically, if not in reality, between a former Director of the CIA and a former US Trade Representative. I’d also note that the only reason Bush got the VP offer in 1980 was because he actually ran for President and stunned everybody with how strong of a campaign he’d run. Portman has done no such thing. Let’s get him off of the list of viable candidates already

Posted under Politics | 1 Comment »

Bobby Jindal, Republican Governor of Louisiana, is a legitimate Vice Presidential candidate for John McCain. He balances out a number of McCain’s problems; he’s young (his 37th birthday was yesterday) to McCain’s old, his expertise is domestic to McCain’s foreign, and he’s brown to McCain’s white. He is also beloved by many on the religious Right. This, however, is the main reason why he probably won’t get the position. He’s, well, a little crazy.

Bob Novak, conservative political analyst extraordinaire argues that there is no legitimate chance for Hillary to get the Vice Presidential nomination. Though she probably won’t end up getting it, there do remain a number of reasons why she will be strongly considered. Of the four demographics in which Obama may face his earliest problems, in order of importance Reagan-Democrats, Latinos, Jews and feminists, Hillary is stronger than Obama in each. There remain a number of grains of salt to take with that analysis, however. In an awkwardly executed (combining polls over a month?) but as yet not disproven poll by Gallup, Obama has a decisive 62-29 lead over McCain among Latinos, a margin which neither Gore nor Kerry matched. (In another poll with awkward methodology conducted by NBC News/WSJ, Obama has a 62-28 lead.) Though Hillary is stronger than Obama amongst Reagan Democrats and Jews, she is far from the strongest surrogate to those voters.  As for feminists, it remains difficult to imagine significant amounts of those voters disillusioned by Hillary’s defeat staying home when the pro-life John McCain is on the ballot. This recent report, however, suggests that I may be the one suffering from a lack of imagination. All these caveats aside, however, Hillary Clinton remains one of the few people who can assist Obama with each of those groups, and decisively with some.

Posted under Politics | No Comments »