The Lofty Lantern

A series of countries, including Turkey, Israel and India are discussing a new pipeline that could play a decisive role in the energy politics of the region. The proposed “Medstream” project would be a cluster of five pipelines transmitting oil, natural gas, water, fiberoptics, and electricity. The oil and natural gas would probably come from Azerbejan and Russia and arrive first in Samsun, Turkey, a port on the country’s Black Sea coast. From there, it would go to Ceyhan, a city near Turkey’s Mediterannean coast. It would then travel through an undersea pipeline to Ashkelon, a city in Israel, and then go over land to Eilat, an Israeli city on the Gulf of Aqaba, which feeds into the Red Sea. From there, it could go to India.

Israel is interested in this project as a secure route for it to recieve energy. India finds it an appealing method to recieve large quantities of oil and natural gas through a route that would avoid both the crowded and potentially dangerous Suez Canal and the Straits of Hormuz. Eventually, the Medstream project could also send oil and natural gas to countries throughout Asia.

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Slowly but surely, the independent leftist Samajwadi Party and their 39 crucial votes in the Lok Sabha, the Indian House of Commons, move towards supporting the 123 Nuclear Agreement and the ruling Congress Party.

The relationship between the Samajwadi Party and their long-standing rivals, the independent leftist BSP, has quickly become nasty, with the latter’s leader Mayawati accusing the nuclear agreement, and by extension those who support is, as being “anti-Muslim.” This argument, also made by some of the Communist parties’ functionaries, is based on the premise that the United States’ actions in the Middle East are decidedly anti-Muslim, and any move towards the US is that as well.

It is questionable the degree to which such arguments have cachet. They are certainly convincing to some in the Marxist parties, but it isn’t clear that many Congress voters (the largest party in India, and centrist), are convinced of this, and it is even less clear that voters of the conservative parties agree with this. Yet in India’s occasionally hyper-Rovian politics, where virtually all parties focus single-mindedly not on gaining the support of the majority, but of their particular voters, there exist parties who seem to be gaining strength by making these arguments.

Serious figures in Indian foreign policy, however, do appear concerned about the fallout from appearing to be close to the United States. Indian National Security Advisor M.K. Naranyanan went to Tehran to meet with Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinajed. India is very close to signing an agreement with Iran and Pakistan to construct a significant pipeline for oil from Iran to South Asia, a deal which displeases America. India is juggling a series of balls in terms of energy security and just whom will be its leading allies, and some - including apparently Naranyanan- are concerned that something might fall through the cracks.

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Reports suggest that India, Iran and Pakistan are close to finalizing a deal to construct a pipeline bringing oil from Iran to South Asia.

There had been some who suggested that it was concern over this deal which included particularly Iran, a country with rocky relations with the United States, that was a factor in blocking the US-Indian nuclear agreement.

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What’s strange about this is that nobody saw it coming. In America, at least.

After decades of strained relationships between the United States and India because of the latter’s leadership role in the Non-Aligned Movement (NAM) which the American government felt to be excessively close to the Soviet Union, recent American Presidents have worked hard to strengthen bilateral relations with India. India appeared to be the rare country that wanted closer relations, democratic institutions, was concerned about terrorism and the rise of China, and even had a booming economy to boot.

The most significant step in this process is a proposed nuclear deal between the US and India. India first refused to sign the Nuclear Non-proliferation treaty (NPT) and then constructed its own nuclear bomb in response to threats it perceived from China and Pakistan. The proposed deal would effectively retroactively approve of India’s nuclear construction, and allow the US to sell to it civilian nuclear reactors if India would allow inspections by the International Atomic Energy Association (IAEA).

It was considered a huge victory for all involved. India would receive international acceptance of its nuclear arsenal and the capability to buy technologies it could use. Bush meanwhile successfully improved relations with a developing superpower and even added a new market for American businesses.

For a period, progress appeared forthcoming. Despite the uproar over outsourcing and the like, the US Congress signed off on the deal by a margin of 359-68 in the House and 85-12 in the Senate.

And then the Indian Congress faced its problems. The Congress Party in India, the ruling center-left party of which Prime Minister Manmohan Singh is a member, supports the bill but has faced remarkable opposition both from the opposing conservative party and the various Marxist parties. Their complaint? They think the deal would move India too close to the United States.

There had been concerns that signing the deal would weaken Indian relations with its former ally, Russia, but the deal’s passage has not been made significantly smoother since Russia has declared its support for it. One Marxist party complained that the deal would force India to take an excessively aggressive stance on Iran, a situation which has already caused some tension between the US and India.

Like in many arenas, energy plays a significant role. India’s growing economy needs large amounts of it from foreign sources. One route that it has been considering is the construction of an India-Iran pipeline, a project that could be endangered by the tempestous nature of the region. The US is wary of this project that could help finance Iran, but is also offering with its proposed nuclear sales, an alternative form of energy which India could use.

For nearly a year, the ruling party has been navigating these difficulties and attempting to nudge the deal through. Singh has vacillated on whether to proceed without the support of his leftist allies.

Congress appears to be slowly gaining support from the left, but US patience is running thin. From the American perspective, it would be a decisive and embarrasing defeat if the Bush Administration could not complete this deal. India is a crucial part of our plans in a series of issues and regions, and the inability to improve relations with one of the few countries whose public has remained remarkably supportive of the US even through the past few years would be unimpressive.

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