Money and power on the African Continent

July 4th, 2008 by Daniel Kushner

Four centuries after European countries realized that slavery pays, the world is again interested in the economic potential of Africa.

The obsession du jour is about China; just how much are they investing in Africa, and what does this mean for world efforts to isolate dictatorships in countries like Zimbabwe and Rwanda?

But investment in Africa is anything but a Chinese phenomenon. In fact, it seems like everybody is jumping into the continent, head first.

A new buy-out fund with a focus on sub-Saharan Africa raised 325 million dollars, largely from members of the Saudi monarchy. Run by Zephyr Management, a group that has decided to avoid Russia and China, feeling that they are already over-invested in. A British cellphone company recently spent 900 million dollars to get a 70% stake of Ghana Telecom.

But like it was during the race for colonies, money and power are interlinked. Countries from China to India, to France and the US, are seeking both economic gain for their companies, and influence for their governments.

Though India has been notably slower to capitalize on the region than China or even some Western countries, they are trying to catch up. A few weeks ago, business papers were abuzz with the possible purchase of MTN, the major South African cell phone company by the Indian Reliance Communications that could have been a behemoth in the developing worlds.

For India, the sub-Saharan African countries have a triple value: they possess immense resources needed by developing and developed economies, they could become a significant market, and they wield more than a quarter of the votes in the UN, which could be crucial in getting them the permanent seat on the UN Security Council that they covet.

Though the chase for resources in Africa is reminiscent of the Great Game of colonialism in the 19th century, there are some who argue that the influx of capital is a generally positive addition to the continent. Then again, there were those who made - and make - similar arguments about colonialism.

India is trying to appear as a nicer China, offering also large amounts of money but not to genocidal dictators. They want to “add value” to the region.

Generally, though, there are some sub-Saharan African countries which seem to be naturally rising. After a nearly three decade civil war, Angola, for example, seems to be on the road to a profitable peace. The Council for Foreign Relations published an influential memo arguing that Angola could be an oasis of stablity in the region, and a potentially useful US ally. This doesn’t mean that there are no issues, but there certainly seems to be the increasing sense that Africa is open for business for everybody.

France is becoming particularly active, stepping up its economic interests in Africa. Recently, they signed a deal to build nuclear reactors with the possibility of the deal expanding to military equipment like helicopters in their former colony, Algeria. Sarkozy has promised a “rupture” in Franco-African relations; On their agenda is an increase of 1 billion Euros to Africa through the French Development Agency with a particular focus on African entrepreneurs. A rupture may be exactly what is needed as French Ambassadors in Africa reported that the French reputation in the continent is still afflicted by its history of colonialism. More recently, French actions in Rwanda and other countries have done little to impress the region. Now, however, France has been a strong backer of Chad whose position is being weakened by aggressive action on the part of Sudan.

The impact of all these moves is uncertain. Notably, in Goldman Sachs’ recent report declaring the most economically important developing countries, none of the top four (Brazil, Russia, India and China i.e. BRIC), were found in sub-Saharan Africa. Still, a country like Kenya, which had been percieved as being a highly successful state, almost collapsed under the weight of ethnic hatred and a disputed election. But the increased attention, however, being paid by big companies and big governments alike, may have an impact. Eventually.

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Lok Sabha Politics

June 27th, 2008 by Daniel Kushner

Though some within the Congress Party are still wary of pushing the 123 Nuclear Agreement forward against strident partisan opposition and risking the collapse of the government and the calling of new elections in an unfavorable electoral climate, the party and the government appear ready to fight. The center-right Times of India published an editorial today calling for the Congress Party to put the deal to a vote and risk defeat. The Congress Party seems poised to do just that, hoping that their improving relationship with the Samajwadi Party will lead them to victory.

The government also received the support of former Indian President Abdul Kalam who never joined a political party, who is not only a Muslim but an important figure in the national missile industry, which has been wary of the deal.

There are now 542 voting members in the Lok Sabha (the Indian House of Commons), meaning the government needs 272 votes to pass the 123 Agreement.  The Congress party has 145 votes, making it the dominant party within the United Progressive Alliance, the ruling coalition, which has roughly 222 votes. For a pro-123 coalition to win without leftist parties, it needs to gain the support of some of the smaller independent parties. Probably the most crucial one will be the Samajwadi party and their 39 votes.

Though the Samajwadi Party boasts significant Muslim support, its leader, Mulayam Singh Yadav, former defense minister and former chief minister (Governor) of Uttar Pradesh, the largest Indian state, is Hindu. He founded the party, which means the Socialist Party in 1992, uniting lower-caste Hindus like himself with Muslims.

Meanwhile, the conservative BJP party is preparing for the elections for the Lok Shaba that will probably result and appear optimistic.

The French are stepping up their public support for the 123 Agreement, hoping that it would allow them to make profitable nuclear-reactor construction deals with the Indian government. Other than for their diplomatic support, this might make it easier for the Indian Prime Minister Singh to fight off the perception that this deal would make India a US lackey.

There is now a growing consensus that India will probably not conduct another nuclear test, despite some suggestions earlier to the contrary.

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123 Agreement should come to a vote

June 26th, 2008 by Daniel Kushner

One day after the New York Times and the Wall Street Journal amongst others declared the 123 Agreement all but dead, it appears to be anything but.

Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh is signalling that, as mentioned here yesterday, he will push forward the deal to a vote in the Indian Parliament. He is hoping that the support of the Samajwadi Party could be enough to push through the 123 Nuclear Agreement even against the opposition of the Leftist parties.

The passage of the 123 Agreement could prompt a race on the parts of a number of countries to make nuclear deals with India. The French and Russians have expressed interest in the potentially exploding nuclear reactor market there.

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The French Socialists

June 3rd, 2008 by Daniel Kushner

It is tempting to believe that only the Democrats can be so incompetent as to not be able to choose their candidate, and when they finally do, to risk an open war between two significant elements of their coalition, women and blacks. Four years before their Presidential election, the French Socialist Party has started early their process with two campaigns already active, and another one all but announced, and are already beginning their state of outright war.

Since the defeat of Socialist Segolene Royal to Nicolas Sarkozy in 2007, the party is attempting to rebuild. Three candidates have all but announced their desires to be the party’s next Presidential candidate and their early divisions seem to be largely ideological.

Bertrand Delanoe, the Mayor of Paris, recently published a book referring to himself as both (classically) liberal and socialist, endorsing individual rights and communitarian economic policies. The two other leading candidates, 2007 Socialist Party Presidential nominee Segolene Royal, and the mayor of Lille, a small city on the border of Belgium Martine Aubry, have attacked Delanoe for this ideological heresy. Aubry in particular has collected around herself a large group of Socialists who are wary of Delanoe and disillusioned with Royal, particularly after her unsuccessful Presidential campaign in 2007. This group, calling itself Les Reconstructeurs (The Reconstructers) believes in what Aubry describes as an unhyphenated Socialism. This more traditional leftist campaign will probably hope to gain support from the smaller leftist parties, most specifically the Green Party and the various smaller Marxist groupings.

What these ideological debates will do to the French Socialist Party is as of yet uncertain, but considering the political debates of one country often travel to the next, like Margaret Thatcher to Ronald Reagan or Bill Clinton to Tony Blair, the Socialist debates may provide hints to internal Democratic arguments.

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