The Lofty Lantern

With the news that Sarah Palin’s unwed 17 year old daughter is pregnant, many are predicting that the GOP will be thrown into disarray. They’re wrong; this will prove a boon in mobilizing the fundamentalist vote and will help humanize the pro-life movement in the eyes of mainstream voters.

It’s true that Sarah Palin was unable to keep one of her five children from choosing to stray. Yet given the consistent failure of abstinence-only indoctrination, this situation should be familiar to every fundamentalist in the country who has seen it play out in the life of a friend or family member. Already they are seeing it as a cause for solidarity:

Bristol Palin is not going to abort her unborn child. She’s going to keep the baby and marry the father. Good for her. It shouldn’t have happened, but it did happen, and now she’s going to do the right thing — the hard thing. Again: good. Mother and child — and father — need support.

Sarah Palin has stood by her daughter’s side through a crisis, and persevered. Rather than having an abortion, her daughter is getting married. Her family is growing and stable, and she’ll soon have the joy of being a grandmother. In their eyes it’s a perfect example of how pro-life ideology can transform a bad situation into a happy ending.

I expect that most moderates will also appreciate this development. Every parent hopes to one day have grandchildren, and recognizes that simply being there to hold their child’s hand is often more important than anything else.

Posted under Elections | 1 Comment »

Ross Douthat responds to Mark Hemingway’s reading of the latest Pew Poll on the Evangelical vote and emphasizes that McCain’s support amongst the Evangelical community is significantly lower than Bush’s had been. He says that “undecided voters do tend to break against the incumbent party,” which is often true. In this case, however, the situation is more problematic. Simply put, all we know is that upwards of 10% of Evangelicals are still undecided, a very high number by recent standards, suggests that lots of people have yet to make up their mind. These Evangelicals voted heavily for the Republicans in recent years and it is certainly bad news for McCain that they are hesitating to back them. That does not mean, however, that they will vote for Obama. Ultimately, I suspect that the effects of the Republicans emphasizing that though Obama may discuss his faith and believe in God, he remains supportive of Roe v Wade and a staunch opponent of anti-gay marriage efforts, will help McCain win a decisive majority of the Evangelical vote (including James Dobson’s), though probably not nearly as high as Bush got.

The truth is, though, that Obama was never seriously contesting the Evangelical vote - it is the political equivalent of buying ads in North Dakota or the Republicans claiming that New Jersey is a battleground state. It’s psychological warfare designed to make the opposition respond. What Obama is hoping to accomplish is for the Republicans to be forced to appeal to the Evangelicals in a way that will gain him moderate votes. For example, can he pressure McCain enough to give Dobson or Pat Robertson a prominent speaking position at the Republican Convention? McCain’s dream national convention includes speeches by Joe Lieberman and Mel Martinez, people who can help him win moderate votes. Obama’s dream Republican convention has James Dobson explaining just who will not be allowed into heaven and the very best ways to ensure nobody’s son becomes gay. In terms of this election, the Evangelical vote as votes matters, but not very much.

Posted under Politics | No Comments »

Mark Hemingway for the National Review notes a new Pew Forum poll on religious voters and notes that despite significant press coverage on Obama’s appealing to Evangelical voters, he has marginally less support amongst them than either Kerry or Gore did. What’s notable about the poll, though, is how much larger a segment of voters are undecided this time than the last two. In contrast to 2000 or 2004, when by this point barely 4% of Americans considered themselves undecided, upwards of 10 percent are now undecided.

Posted under Politics | 2 Comments »