The Lofty Lantern

Republican Senator Ted Stevens, the 3rd Senator in Alaska’s history, has been indicted by the Justice Department on 7 counts. Stevens was facing his first serious Democratic challenger, Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich, in a tight race. Ironically, this could be good news for the Republicans who were already facing an unusually tough race because of the scandals besetting the Senator. If Stevens can be convinced to exit the race quickly and another Republican can be found who might win in this heavily Republican state, it could save Republican hopes here.  If Stevens fights the charges and insists on running again, however, or if the Republicans fail to replace him with a strong candidate in the last 90 odd days before the election, then the Democrats will certainly pick up a seat here for only the second time since the state’s founding.

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This doesn’t look too good for her

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Rasmussen often produces strange results, so it was with wariness that I read their recent poll giving Democratic Senate candidate Mark Begich a 50-41 lead over incumbent Republican Senator Ted Stevens. I mean, it’s been 16 years since somebody has kept Stevens from getting 2/3rds of the vote. And that time, he got 66.2%. The previous time he got that few votes was in 1962, when he was first elected to the Senate.

But, in imitation of comprehensiveness, I checked Pollster.com. It turns out that in no poll conducted this year (or last) has Stevens been above 50%. Rasmussen, in fact, is the one pollster to be relatively optimistic, giving him a marginal, if unimpressive, 46-44 lead in June, which makes their current numbers all the more appetizing. Congressional Quarterly is still sticking with their rating of this seat as leaning to the Republicans, but they will probably be forced to change it fairly soon.

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A poll commisioned by DailyKos finds that the Democrat Ethan Berkowitz, the former Minority leader of the Alaska State House of Representatives, and the Lieutenant Governor-candidate on Tony Knowles’ losing ticket in 2006, holds a significant lead for the state’s at large Congressional district against embattled Republican incumbent Don Young.

Not only is Young below the crucial 50% threshold for an incumbent, but the challenger is above it, leading 51-40. Partisan polls tend to be overfavorable to their candidate and underfavorable to the opponent by about 3%. Even with that under consideration, Berkowitz would lead by about 48-43.

Campaigns with an incumbent tend to be about the incumbent more than the challenger. In other words, people either vote to keep him in office or to kick him out. In this case, Don Young is decidedly unpopular. Not only is he well below 50%, but only 37% of Alaskans have a favorable opinion of him, while a shocking 61% disapprove. Amongst independents, the numbers are even more negative, with 65% having an unfavorable opinion. Even 35% of Republicans have an unfavorable opinion, and 18% of them are already planning on voting for Berkowitz, while another 11% are undecided.

Berkowitz appears to be generally positive (52-29 favorable-unfavorable, with a terrific 59-25 amongst independents), though a long campaign could temper that enthusiasm. It appears, though, unless the Republicans remove Young from the ticket, the next Congressman from Alaska will be named Ethan Berkowitz.

And that is the punch line.

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