The Lofty Lantern

Remember everybody talking about how Jews are going Republican? Implying issues of racism and such? Well, not so much.

Gallup just came out with a poll showing Jews are backing Obama by a 74-22 margin. For reference, in 2000 Jews broke for Gore by a 79-19 margin, and in 2004 went for Kerry by 74-25. Since Clinton in 1992, Jews have voted consistently on the Presidential level between 74 and 80%. Even more interestingly, contrary to Sarah Silverman’s beliefs, older Jews are not only backing Obama, but at rates significantly higher than younger Jews are. 

So why were so many people surprised? First of all, as a general rule Jews should be becoming more Republican. The historical trend is for immigrants to vote overwhelmingly Democratic, and as they get wealthier and more integrated into American society, to shift steadily to the Republican Party. But Jews are refuting this trend. With the exception of FDR’s last 2 elections and when Lyndon Johnson ran against the Civil Rights Act opposing Barry Goldwater, Jews have never voted for a Democrat at a significant higher rate than they are for Gore or Obama, let alone Clinton. Consider this: Clinton did better amongst Jews in 1992 than FDR did in 1932 in the middle of the Great Depression. Ironically, in the 1970s and 1980s Jews did seem to be shifting rightwards, but in retrospect those appear to have been simply unique elections - from 1972 to 1984, only once did the Democrats come even close to beating the Republican, and that cycle (1976), Jews reverted to their usual 71-27 margin for Jimmy Carter over Gerald Ford. The strongest year a Republican had in the modern era with Jews was in 1980, when not only did Ronald Reagan win the nation decisively, but he was running against Jimmy Carter, by then decidedly unpopular amongst Jews. (Astonishingly, however, Bush Sr. got 35% against Dukakis in 1988). Those elections, however, were the exception rather than the rule. In the last two decades, though Jews have become increasingly integrated and increasingly wealthy, they remain as Democratic as they had ever been.

That this story got so much play suggests that there must be something to it. A few points - one is I think we have a tendency to overestimate bigotry amongst older voters because of terms. At 25 year old who uses the word Negro is almost invariably a racist (or at least wildly uneducated). If an 85 year old uses that term itcould simply be an indication that until he was 40-45 or so, that was the accepted term for African-Americans. (Read Martin Luther King’s early speeches - the change is remarkably recent) This isn’t to imply that bigotry doesn’t exist amongst the old, or even sometimes at higher rates than amongst the young, but it isn’t quite as high as it sometimes appears.

The other point is that though Jews are voting as Democratic this cycle as they did in the 1990s, it does feel different. The reason, I think, is that Jews who are voting Republican feel more comfortable admitting this than previously. A Jew who used to not want to admit he was voting for Dole is now proud that he is voting for McCain. This is a culture shift, but not one translating into votes. Yet, at least.

One reason is that visible Jews are much more Republican than non-visible Jews. Orthodox and Chasidishe Jews, who are easily identifiable as Jews, are significantly more conservative than Conservative, Reform or non-affiliated Jews, who pass, to use an old term. In terms of Jewish politics, Orthodox and Chasidishe Jews do possess a disproportionate amount of weight - no matter how many Reform and Conservative Rabbis would like for this to change, an issue like universal health care or the enviroment will not become “Jewish” issues in the way that Israel or Darfur are until Orthodox rabbis follow (in practical terms, Chasidim are irrelevant for this discussion). Yet Orthodox and Chasidishe Jews are the distinct minority even within the Jewish community, no matter how surprising that is to those from certain communities. Though we already know that Reform and Conservative Jews cannot pull the Jewish community as Jews without Orthodox backing, we may now be testing for the first time whether Orthodox Jews can pull the Jewish community without their less religious brethren. To some extent, they are doing so; Reform and Conservative Jews seem to already be feeling a certain compunction about backing a supposedly less pro-Israel Democratic candidate rather than Republican. Yet as actual votes are showing, this wariness isn’t that sizable. It’s possible that this is an early sign of a general shift of Jews from the Democratic Party - or it’s possible that yet again, the rumors will remain just that.

Posted under Politics |