Some former Soviet republics like Russia, apparently
Who knew? Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan have all declared their support of Russia taking an “active role” in the resolution of the Georgia crisis.
Archive for August, 2008
French Conventions vs. America
While modern American political conventions have become speech-giving exercises, with little news to be made, both Presidential and Vice-Presidential nominees have been chosen (and the Republican equivalent to be chosen before their convention begins), the French Socialist Party’s remain much messier. Years before their next Presidential election, the French Socialist Party is preparing for its convention in Reims to replace Francois Hollande as their party leader, with the presumption being that the winner will be its Presidential nominee. In an interview with the newspaper Liberation, Hollande said “A convention is a time for choice, not confrontation…The Socialist Party has to leave as a coherent ensemble; one direction, one strategy, one project, and above all, a desire to succeed together.”
The interesting question for the Democratic Party on the eve of its candidates’ speeches is just what their direction or strategy will be. The speakers thus far have been listing policy proposals but have failed to present a singular image or vision of what an Obama presidency will be. Like perhaps Franklin Roosevelt or John Kennedy, an Obama Presidency seems to be deeply reliant on the candidate himself; there is (yet) no name for this programs, like even FDR’s New Deal or JFK’s New Frontier. What he is offering isn’t a set of policies, but his body, as an emblem of a country above race, above partisan division, above war. This is reminiscent of FDR’s 1932 campaign whose New Deal was described as being just that - new. There were no specifics, no set of programs (in contrast to Obama), until he reached the Presidency. Whether Obama will have this luxury, however, is as yet to be determined.
Is this a joke?
I didn’t especially love Mark Warner’s speech, but if Bill Clinton’s 1988 address was a classic of anything, it was of lousiness. Its only applause line was, “In conclusion.” Bill Clinton was a terrific politician but not an especially good formal speech-giver. In contrast to his wife, as we saw tonight
Iraq begins to build a real army
That the Iraqi government announced recently it would spend in the area of 11 billion dollars on weapons systems is not nearly as interesting as what they are buying. In the midst of C-130 transport planes, light armored vehicles, and support vehicles are 140 M1A1 Abrams tanks. The M1A1 is a main battle tank that was for many years the mainstay of US ground forces. Though we are in the process of changing to the M1A2, the acquisition of this many M1A1s, in the words of the Long War Journal, “indicates the Iraqi Army is starting to transform from a light motorized force into a mixed force with armored, mechanized, and cavalry divisions capable of countering the Iranian and Syrian armies.”
McCain, foot, and mouth
When John McCain told the Weekly Standard that he might consider naming a pro-choice candidate as his Vice President, I wondered if maybe there was a method to his madness. Sure there are some benefits to the idea; being thought of as even considering a pro-choice VP could help him with moderates, particularly those women still appalled that Hillary Clinton lost the nomination. Even a trial balloon for former Pennsylvania Governor Tom Ridge, or for Senator Joe Lieberman could help McCain in swing state Pennsylvania or with a whole mess of voters. Actually doing it of course would be suicide, ceding millions of votes from the right, far more than he could expect to gain from the center. But mentioning it might be helpful.
Yet if this had been planned intelligently, it would not have been done this way at all. First of all, it wouldn’t have been McCain himself who said it, but rather a highly placed campaign source. That would have avoided the current difficulty, where McCain himself has been quoted saying, “You know, Tom Ridge is one of the great leaders and he happens to be pro-choice. And I don’t think that that would necessarily rule Tom Ridge out,” an opinion that will certainly exacerbate already existing concerns on the right. If he insisted on saying it himself, he would have said it differently. He should have said, I strongly disagree with Tom Ridge or with Joe Lieberman on abortion, but I deeply respect Lieberman’s expertise on foreign policy or Ridge’s on homeland security and I think they should be considered for the Vice Presidency. By leading with his opposition to their stance on abortion, he would still show his willingness to accept people who disagree with him, without appalling conservatives. Third, if you were going to do this well, you wouldn’t have done it to the Weekly Standard. The leading neoconservative magazine might not itself be wholeheartedly pro-life, but they certainly aren’t voting because of their position on abortion. Virtually none of the swing voters who might be impressed by McCain’s semi-independence on the issue read this magazine, keeping the benefit nil. It also got relatively little mainstream press, so far covered primarily by the political papers.
So it wasn’t planned well. And now for his trouble, McCain has managed to piss off more voters whom he needed, exactly what you hope not to do not even from the Vice-Presidential selection, but from its process.
Why Biden makes no sense for Obama
Chris Cilizza, a lead political reporter for the Washington Post, makes the case for Joe Biden today noting that the Delaware Senator is the “hottest” VP candidate for Obama. He’ll be writing tomorrow the case against him, but that’s no reason not to start now.
On the one hand, Biden seems like the perfect candidate; he’s chock full of experience, particularly on foreign policy, can speak well and clearly, and is never boring. Then there’s his being white Catholic man originally from Pennsylvania, exactly the demographic which Obama will badly need in this campaign.
And if he could be that, then he would be a viable candidate for Obama. His only problem is his inability to shut up. Chuck Todd, probably the best political analyst in the business, noted favorably Biden’s staying out of the news for the past two weeks as evidence that maybe he has grown. Except Biden’s problem isn’t staying out of the news - it’s getting into it in the way that he wants.
From his disastrous questioning of Samuel Alito at his confirmation hearing, where when he was supposed to be attacking the conservative judge, he managed to find a way to insult Princeton University, to the start of his 2008 campaign when he somehow offended a truly impressive range of people with his characterization of Obama as “clean,” to his comment about the ethnicity of many 7/11 owners in Delaware, Biden doesn’t seem able to say twenty sentences in a row without saying 3 stupid things. This doesn’t preclude the fact that he may say 12 smart things too, but in this political climate, nobody will care about the smart things nearly as much as the stupid ones. The idiotic comments are especially damaging considering he would be expected to provide solidity and gravitas to the Obama campaign. If Barack Obama doesn’t look like some people’s perception of a President, then Joe Biden wearing a Princeton cap to his second round of questioning Alito in an effort to mitigate any concerns that some might have that he insulted the school - well, that doesn’t look like anybody’s perception of a President.
Obama’s problem isn’t intelligence or lack of ideas. (Disturbingly,) he needs somebody who looks and seems and feels like a potential President to everybody in the country. He needs somebody who feels solid and surefooted, often, but not always, the result of experience. He can’t choose somebody simply because they have a long resume.
The Gulf States and India
Qatar has recently announced that there are 419,000 Indians in its country, almost 1/3 of the country’s total population, and twice as many native Qataris live there. India has sent nearly 5 million people to the various Gulf States where they play a highly important role in the construction industry that is quickly modernizing booming cities like Dubai. In Kuwait, Indians are roughly 15% of the country’s population. The 1.5 million Indians in the United Arab Emirates constitute more than a quarter of their population. The most Indians in any particular Gulf State is Saudi Arabia, which has almost 1.56 million.
Who hates Palin and Jindal?
In his piece on the Republican Vice Presidential selection process, New York Times op-ed columnist William Kristol suggests that McCain might make an unlikely choice: “This implies a young and different V.P.: the 37-year-old governor of Louisiana, Bobby Jindal; 44-year-old Gov. Sarah Palin of Alaska; or Eric Cantor, the 45-year-old Virginia congressman. Party pros would have fainting spells about the unseasoned Jindal and Palin in particular — but party pros are often wrong, and if Jindal or Palin performed well as candidates, the upside would be considerable.”
In terms of Sarah Palin, the party pros may have a point. Palin brings a series of formidable advantages to the table, from her willingness to critique the endemic corruption in Alaska Republican politics that is now being openly revealed in the Ted Stevens case, to her stance on abortion that could solidify McCain’s support on the right (incidentally, will this take away any Evangelical votes she might have gained?). That being said, sending a person who served in only local positions before winning a single statewide election (in Alaska, no less. Their investigative reporters are probably not quite on the Daily News, let alone Boston Globe level), to run for Vice President is a risk.
But what is it about Bobby Jindal that would cause “party pros” to specifically faint that Eric Cantor would not? That he is “unseasoned”? Yes, Cantor, a 3 term Congressman from Virginia, has been a significant figure in the Republican caucus, rising to the Chief Deputy Whip. Jindal, however, has run two statewide races in Louisiana that were distinctive for the nastiness in which ensued, and won one. He also won two races for the US House of Representatives, where he was the President of his freshmen class, a position of little import, but probably constituting almost as much “seasoning” as being the Chief Deputy Whip. This is after Jindal ran a series of crucial state-wide offices in Louisiana and served as the Assistant Secretary of Health and Human Services. Granted, none of this makes him necessarily ready to handle the political duties of the Vice Presidential candidate, but he certainly is more seasoned than Cantor.
There is a simple explanation: these “party pros” aren’t that concerned about Cantor because they know that he won’t be named, whereas Jindal or Palin may very well be. I suspect this isn’t it. One finds this strange presumption that Jindal is this deeply risky selection for reasons that are irresponsible. Jindal is a risky selection, both because of his odd social views that could lose him as many votes in the center as he would gain on the right, and for the unfortunate reason that his ethnicity will lose him votes that McCain could use. But one thing he does have is experience - why say otherwise? (Of course Kristol himself doesn’t say this, but is quoting Republican party figures on this). Perhaps this is over-reading, but it feels like we’re now using inexperience as code for being an unusual candidate in terms of race. It’s unfortunate. It’s one thing for a candidate to lose votes because of his ethnicity - it seems much worse for us to shade it and not discuss it, directly.