Why everything you think you know about Obama’s VP choice may be wrong?
Or so Trapper John says
Archive for July, 2008
McCain and taxes
On George Stephanopoulos’ show, John McCain refused to categorically deny the possibility of raising payroll taxes to fund Social Security. Now, he’s getting slapped by the Wall Street Journal.
The WSJ makes its own points about the misguided politics of making such a statement. I largely agree. Perhaps the larger point, though, is that the Wall Street Journal - and in this case they are representative of many conservatives with whom they strongly disagree, including religious and cultural conservatives - simply don’t trust John McCain. They’re going to vote for him, sure. But they don’t trust him. The reason is pretty simple: John McCain has spent the last two decades voting regularly with the Republican Party but taking the occasional opportunity to play maverick, and to challenge the conservative orthodoxy. That this occurred on only 4 or 5 issues is irrelevant. Those were the most famous things that McCain did. Of course he did get benefits from taking those stances, but he is also now paying a price. This is it.
“We will Kill you all”
15,000 people protested today in Belgrade, Serbia the arrest of Radovan Karazdic, almost twice the amount of people whose massacre he authorized in one incident at Srebrenica. Described as “ultranationalists,” they attacked traffic lights with clubs, hurled stones at storefront windows, injuring 45 people, while shouting slogans like “We will kill you all.” They explained: “Karadzic is a hero because he defended Serb lives during the terrible wars of the 1990s,” said Elena Pavovski, 24…next to a banner on Republic Square that threatened Serbia’s pro-Western president, Boris Tadic.” There’s no better way to defend Serbian lives than by killing the popularly elected Serbian leader, Pavovski believes. (Jessie Helms would be proud.)
But it’s this paragraph from the New York Times that’s most telling:
“Mr. Karadzic was escorted by masked Serbian security officers and taken from the Belgrade war crimes court at roughly 3:45 a.m., according to the prosecutor, Vladimir Vukcevic.”
The police officers arresting a genocidal maniac were forced to wear masks while escorting him in the middle of the night so nobody would know whom to blame, who to attack, who to lynch. Well, that’s one endorsement for the health of the rule of law
HoR Elections
While the network news covers McCain and Obama day in and day out, the less-covered elections for the House of Representatives are about as unsettled as they have been in more than a decade. Redistricting and the high cost of elections have made Congressional incumbency a powerful force, making a seriously contested race relatively rare. This year, however, the Congressional Quarterly is reporting that 95 of the 435 seats in the House are competitive, 60 of which are highly so.
As of now, the map leans Democratic. The Republicans have more to lose, holding 58 of the 95 competitive seats, and 3/5ths of the most competitive seats. Five Republican Congressmen who are retiring will very probably cede their seats to the Democratic Party, giving the Democrats room to maneuver.
The Democrats will face tough races in conservative Southern states like Georgia and Alabama, and in the districts their candidates won in the last 2 years. Freshmen Congresspeople are normally the most vulnerable members, an ironic problem for the Democrats who have been so successful in recent elections. The Republicans, on the other hand, are continuing to face difficulties where they lost seats in 2006; the Northeast and Midwest. In New York, for example, the Republicans had 9 seats before the 2006 election. That year, they lost 3 of the 9. This year, the Democrats are already favored to pick up another 2 seats in the state, and face highly competitive races in 2 more Republican districts. Only 2 New York Republican Congressmen - Peter King and John McHugh - are safe. The Democrats are targetting Ohio again, with 4 Republican seats considered highly competitive.
Congressional elections, however, occupy a strange space between the local and national enviroment. On the one hand, Congressmen can have enormous influence on local issues like jobs. On the other hand, they are often seen simply as ways to elect a Democratic or a Republican majority. Though local issues do certainly matter, Charlie Cook noted that national political trends have an enormous amount of influence on the outcomes. Of the highly competitive races for the House and the Senate, he found that one party tends to win in the area of 80% each election, far more than one would assume if they were decided because of the particular candidates. The irony is that at this point, the map is so unsettled with so many endangered seats held by both parties, that even if one party would win that proportion of seats, it might not gain more than 10 or 15 total.
Alaska Politics Unbound
Republican Senator Ted Stevens, the 3rd Senator in Alaska’s history, has been indicted by the Justice Department on 7 counts. Stevens was facing his first serious Democratic challenger, Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich, in a tight race. Ironically, this could be good news for the Republicans who were already facing an unusually tough race because of the scandals besetting the Senator. If Stevens can be convinced to exit the race quickly and another Republican can be found who might win in this heavily Republican state, it could save Republican hopes here. If Stevens fights the charges and insists on running again, however, or if the Republicans fail to replace him with a strong candidate in the last 90 odd days before the election, then the Democrats will certainly pick up a seat here for only the second time since the state’s founding.
Congress and Samajwadi after Victory
Just weeks after Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s government won a slim but substantial victory on a trust vote in the Indian Parliament, the ruling Congress Party’s coalition is in a strong position between an opposition split into a conservative bloc led by the BJP Party, and a left Third Front consisting of the Communist Parties and the BSP.
As the trust vote showed, there is currently a bare majority of votes in the Lok Sabha in neither of those two coalitions. The question for the Congress Party and its latest, strongest ally, the Samajwadi Party, is can that coalition hold and succeed in the upcoming elections.
Electorally, the crucial region is Uttar Pradesh, by far the largest state in India, which elects 80 of the 545 members of the Indian Parliament. Currently, the Samajwadi Party has 33 of those votes, the most of any party in the region. Though the Congress Party has only 9 seats in the state, two of them are held by party leader Sonia Gandhi (wife, daughter-in-law and granddaughter-in-law of former Prime Minister) and her son, Rahul Gandhi, both national figures to whom popularity in the largest state in the country matter. Indian Parliamentary elections are decided district by district, giving incentives to coalitions to determine ahead of time which party will contest which seat, so as to not split the vote. The negotiations on how to divide Uttar Pradesh are delicate. Congress has made noises about hoping to have its party’s candidate be on the ballot in 40 of the 80 votes, but it is highly unlikely that the Samajwadi Party will accept that arrangement.
Technically, the Samajwadi Party is still keeping some distance from Congress’ coalition, hoping that it can now gain crucial concessions before it officially joins. Its first concern is that Congress’ emphasis on economic reform will keep it from backing politically popular concessions to the many farmers who are now navigating unusually difficult financial straits. The SP’s position is strong, and Congress will probably be forced to acquiesce in some form, to keep this new coalition alive.
Romney hit from both sides
Mitt Romney is considered one of the leading candidates to be McCain’s Vice Presidential pick, but recieved knocks from both economic and social conservatives today.
The Washington Times published an article today with a whole list of major figures of the religious right who would be decidedly displeased if Mitt Romney became McCain’s nominee, both because of his flexible stances on abortion and other social issues, as well as his membership in the Mormon Church. That there is concern with the former Massachusates Governor is less telling than that the Washington Times is publishing this article as the McCain campaign is making its final decision, and that figures like Tim LaHaye are willing to be quoted with their abiding concerns.
In a less aggressive but perhaps equally problemmatic development, the Wall Street Journal comments that even Romney’s percieved strength - economic policy - might not be as problem-free as Romney backers might like. They suggest that Romney’s health care plan was close enough to Obama’s that it might be difficult for him to criticize Obama on the campaign trail, and might hurt McCain amongst economic conservative voters.
Obama and VP
Tim Kaine, the Democratic Governor of Virginia, is in Washington DC today along with Barack Obama . This would renew speculation about whom Obama will choose to be Vice President, except the speculation never diminished enough to be able to be renewed.
Currently, Barack Obama possesses a small but distinct lead in the Presidential campaign, which gives him the luxury of not needing a big gain from his Vice Presidential pick. His Vice President needs to be a confirming figure for Middle America, both in terms of culture and foreign policy. Either executive experience or DC experience would be a plus. Strength amongst Catholics or midwestern whites, the decisive blocs in this campaign, is always helpful, as is popularity in a particular region.
The four leading candidates for the Vice Presidency: Virginia Governor Tim Kaine, Indiana Senator Evan Bayh, Rhode Island Senator Jack Reed, and former South Dakota Senator Tom Daschle, are similar in the sense that they won’t hurt Obama with any significant group, and will solidify his position amongst the many voters who don’t oppose Obama, but are wary of him. For the next three months, the question of how comfortable Americans are with Obama will be the decisive question in whether he becomes the next President, or if the old reliable Republican wins.
Medstream Part II
A feasibility study looking into the potential for a cluster of pipelines bringing oil, natural gas and other resources from Turkey to Israel, and possibly India, will take ten months.The pipelines would begin to be constructed sometime in 2009, and is expected to cost nearly 8 billion dollars. The Turks and Israelis are hoping that the French-led Union for the Mediterranean might help fund the project.
The proposed pipeline would allow the oil that normally takes more than a month to go from Russia to India, to arrive in only 19 days. It is expected to transport up to 40 million tonnes of oil, or more than 270 million barrels, annually. In 2007, Israel consumed oil at the rate of 80 million barrels annually, the vast majority of which came from Russia. The rest of the oil is expected to be exported to India and possibly East Asia.
MedStream
A series of countries, including Turkey, Israel and India are discussing a new pipeline that could play a decisive role in the energy politics of the region. The proposed “Medstream” project would be a cluster of five pipelines transmitting oil, natural gas, water, fiberoptics, and electricity. The oil and natural gas would probably come from Azerbejan and Russia and arrive first in Samsun, Turkey, a port on the country’s Black Sea coast. From there, it would go to Ceyhan, a city near Turkey’s Mediterannean coast. It would then travel through an undersea pipeline to Ashkelon, a city in Israel, and then go over land to Eilat, an Israeli city on the Gulf of Aqaba, which feeds into the Red Sea. From there, it could go to India.
Israel is interested in this project as a secure route for it to recieve energy. India finds it an appealing method to recieve large quantities of oil and natural gas through a route that would avoid both the crowded and potentially dangerous Suez Canal and the Straits of Hormuz. Eventually, the Medstream project could also send oil and natural gas to countries throughout Asia.